Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2010-06-11, Toyota Park were:
Possum (13, 4.2 shows)
Backwards Down the Number Line (12, 4.7 shows)
Harry Hood (12, 4.1 shows)
Character Zero (11, 4.5 shows)
Stash (10, 5.9 shows)
Time Turns Elastic (10, 41.6 shows)
Sample in a Jar (10, 7.2 shows)
Mike's Song (9, 5 shows)
NICU (9, 10.2 shows)
Light (9, 5.1 shows)
Weekapaug Groove (8, 4.9 shows)
Alaska (8, 15.5 shows)
Bouncing Around the Room (7, 7.4 shows)
Limb By Limb (7, 10.2 shows)
Poor Heart (7, 16.2 shows)
Grind (6, 23.8 shows)
Silent in the Morning (6, 11.7 shows)
The Horse (6, 15.1 shows)
Sparkle (6, 14.1 shows)
Let Me Lie (6, 73.9 shows)
I Am Hydrogen (6, 14.8 shows)
The Wedge (6, 6.9 shows)
First Tube (6, 6.7 shows)
Split Open and Melt (5, 8.9 shows)
Taste (5, 15.1 shows)
Ya Mar (5, 13.9 shows)
Train Song (5, 33.3 shows)
Halley's Comet (5, 7.6 shows)
Beauty of a Broken Heart (5, 47.5 shows)
When the Circus Comes (4, 20.8 shows)
Farmhouse (4, 13.6 shows)
Brian and Robert (4, 30.2 shows)
Esther (4, 35 shows)
Tube (4, 5.5 shows)
A Day in the Life (4, 23.8 shows)
Drowned (4, 28.9 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 25% of the actual 20-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.