Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2009-08-11, Toyota Park were:
Kill Devil Falls (7, 5.5 shows)
Sample in a Jar (6, 7 shows)
Free (6, 4.8 shows)
Punch You in the Eye (6, 12.3 shows)
Runaway Jim (6, 8.5 shows)
AC/DC Bag (5, 7.6 shows)
Tube (5, 5.4 shows)
Wilson (5, 7.1 shows)
Prince Caspian (5, 7.5 shows)
The Squirming Coil (5, 11.1 shows)
Ghost (5, 4.5 shows)
Silent in the Morning (5, 11.5 shows)
Also Sprach Zarathustra (5, 5.2 shows)
Bouncing Around the Room (5, 7.3 shows)
Loving Cup (5, 9.3 shows)
Back on the Train (5, 5.6 shows)
NICU (5, 10.1 shows)
The Horse (5, 14.7 shows)
Reba (5, 7.5 shows)
Split Open and Melt (4, 8.8 shows)
Farmhouse (4, 13.3 shows)
Waste (4, 12.8 shows)
First Tube (4, 6.6 shows)
Lawn Boy (4, 10.6 shows)
Wading in the Velvet Sea (4, 10.9 shows)
Water in the Sky (4, 17.8 shows)
I Am Hydrogen (4, 14.4 shows)
A Day in the Life (4, 22.5 shows)
Poor Heart (4, 16.1 shows)
Train Song (4, 30.7 shows)
Boogie On Reggae Woman (4, 10.9 shows)
Heavy Things (3, 11.5 shows)
Horn (3, 15.7 shows)
Seven Below (3, 19.9 shows)
Undermind (3, 11.1 shows)
Twist (3, 5.1 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 40% of the actual 20-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.