Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2009-06-04, Nikon at Jones Beach Theater were:
Fluffhead (1, 7.6 shows)
Divided Sky (1, 7.3 shows)
I Didn't Know (1, 21.1 shows)
The Oh Kee Pa Ceremony (1, 42.3 shows)
NICU (1, 10.1 shows)
Horn (1, 15.7 shows)
Rift (1, 7.4 shows)
Train Song (1, 30.7 shows)
Water in the Sky (1, 17.8 shows)
The Squirming Coil (1, 11.1 shows)
Backwards Down the Number Line (1, 4.6 shows)
Taste (1, 14.7 shows)
Theme From the Bottom (1, 6.6 shows)
First Tube (1, 6.6 shows)
Waste (1, 12.8 shows)
Grind (1, 22.5 shows)
Back on the Train (1, 5.6 shows)
Brian and Robert (1, 29.4 shows)
Split Open and Melt (1, 8.8 shows)
Heavy Things (1, 11.5 shows)
Punch You in the Eye (1, 12.3 shows)
Gumbo (1, 11.9 shows)
Mexican Cousin (1, 75.1 shows)
It's Ice (1, 14.7 shows)
Halley's Comet (1, 7.6 shows)
Beauty of a Broken Heart (1, 45.1 shows)
Guelah Papyrus (1, 28.2 shows)
Lawn Boy (1, 10.6 shows)
Run Like an Antelope (1, 4.7 shows)
Rock and Roll (1, 9.5 shows)
Ghost (1, 4.5 shows)
Piper (1, 5.5 shows)
Birds of a Feather (1, 8.1 shows)
Prince Caspian (1, 7.5 shows)
I Am Hydrogen (1, 14.4 shows)
A Day in the Life (1, 22.5 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 65% of the actual 17-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.