Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 1998-12-29, Madison Square Garden were:
Chalk Dust Torture (21, 3.8 shows)
Piper (19, 4.7 shows)
Ghost (18, 4.6 shows)
Weekapaug Groove (17, 4.8 shows)
Harry Hood (16, 4.1 shows)
Mike's Song (16, 4.9 shows)
Brian and Robert (15, 17.2 shows)
Funky Bitch (15, 7.2 shows)
Hold Your Head Up (14, 22.8 shows)
Character Zero (14, 4.4 shows)
Run Like an Antelope (14, 4.7 shows)
Also Sprach Zarathustra (13, 5.2 shows)
Frankie Says (13, 28.5 shows)
Water in the Sky (12, 13 shows)
Punch You in the Eye (12, 10 shows)
Meat (12, 18.3 shows)
Reba (12, 7.6 shows)
My Soul (12, 14 shows)
Beauty of My Dreams (11, 25.4 shows)
Wading in the Velvet Sea (11, 9.2 shows)
NICU (10, 8.7 shows)
Lawn Boy (10, 9.7 shows)
Ya Mar (9, 11.4 shows)
Wilson (9, 6.7 shows)
AC/DC Bag (8, 7.6 shows)
Bittersweet Motel (8, 48.1 shows)
Fluffhead (7, 8.7 shows)
Frankenstein (7, 20.3 shows)
Slave to the Traffic Light (7, 5.7 shows)
Runaway Jim (7, 7.8 shows)
Halley's Comet (7, 8.3 shows)
Ginseng Sullivan (7, 30.4 shows)
Cities (6, 11.1 shows)
Sneakin' Sally Through the Alley (6, 17.9 shows)
Sleeping Monkey (6, 20.3 shows)
Divided Sky (6, 7.5 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 44% of the actual 16-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.