Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 1998-07-19, Shoreline Amphitheatre were:
Ghost (23, 4.4 shows)
Theme from the Bottom (17, 7 shows)
Taste (16, 10 shows)
Dirt (15, 13.6 shows)
Down with Disease (15, 4.2 shows)
Bouncing Around the Room (14, 7 shows)
You Enjoy Myself (14, 5.4 shows)
Prince Caspian (13, 7 shows)
Ginseng Sullivan (12, 23.6 shows)
Funky Bitch (12, 7.1 shows)
Dogs Stole Things (11, 31.2 shows)
Bathtub Gin (11, 5 shows)
Train Song (11, 23 shows)
Maze (11, 6.8 shows)
Sparkle (9, 12.3 shows)
Runaway Jim (9, 7.7 shows)
Split Open and Melt (9, 8.4 shows)
Possum (9, 4.4 shows)
Cities (8, 11 shows)
Izabella (8, 48.4 shows)
Frankenstein (8, 19 shows)
Billy Breathes (7, 26.9 shows)
Scent of a Mule (7, 19 shows)
Timber (Jerry the Mule) (7, 15.1 shows)
Cavern (7, 6 shows)
Black-Eyed Katy (7, 138.3 shows)
Twist (7, 5.3 shows)
AC/DC Bag (6, 7.6 shows)
McGrupp and the Watchful Hosemasters (6, 32.3 shows)
Vultures (6, 21.5 shows)
Johnny B. Goode (6, 161.3 shows)
Lawn Boy (6, 10 shows)
Fire (5, 38.7 shows)
Poor Heart (5, 14 shows)
Fluffhead (5, 8.7 shows)
Steep (5, 64.5 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 28% of the actual 18-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.