Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 1997-12-29, Madison Square Garden were:
Chalk Dust Torture (26, 3.8 shows)
Stash (23, 5.5 shows)
Limb By Limb (22, 6.3 shows)
Down with Disease (21, 4.1 shows)
Dogs Stole Things (20, 23.9 shows)
Beauty of My Dreams (20, 17.9 shows)
Dirt (19, 13 shows)
You Enjoy Myself (18, 5.4 shows)
David Bowie (17, 5.5 shows)
Wolfman's Brother (17, 4.5 shows)
Cars Trucks Buses (17, 19.7 shows)
Loving Cup (15, 7.7 shows)
Maze (15, 6.7 shows)
Water in the Sky (15, 11.8 shows)
Billy Breathes (14, 22.8 shows)
Free (13, 5.3 shows)
Waste (13, 11.2 shows)
Bathtub Gin (12, 5 shows)
Twist (11, 5.4 shows)
Sparkle (11, 12.1 shows)
Poor Heart (11, 13.2 shows)
Reba (11, 7.5 shows)
Wading in the Velvet Sea (10, 9.2 shows)
Hello My Baby (10, 40.2 shows)
Frankenstein (10, 18.3 shows)
Johnny B. Goode (10, 91.3 shows)
Timber (Jerry the Mule) (9, 15 shows)
Wilson (8, 6.9 shows)
AC/DC Bag (8, 7.7 shows)
Uncle Pen (8, 45.6 shows)
Gumbo (8, 12 shows)
Possum (7, 4.6 shows)
Love Me (7, 111.6 shows)
Olivia's Pool (6, 100.4 shows)
Jesus Just Left Chicago (6, 43.7 shows)
Sweet Adeline (6, 100.4 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 38% of the actual 16-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.